- Ron Paul finished Iowa with more than DOUBLE the vote he garnered in 2008.
- He was only 3% behind the leader, Mitt Romney, in Iowa.
- Not all precincts yet reported, he's on track to get more than TRIPLE his 2008 total in New Hampshire.
- And, he won Coos County! It was great to see a quarter of the map light up red! See: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/10/map-new-hampshire-primary-2012-results_n_1195374.html
- All recent polls indicate that he will at least TRIPLE 2008 in both South Carolina and Florida.
From here on is my opinion, please comment:
The attention he'll get coming out of NH will change everything,,, a little but at least.
Now, bear in mind that the polls in the next two states have included Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman, who are essentially dead. Yes, Perry said he'd stay in for a more primaries, but his numbers are dropping and not recovering anywhere. He has also been one of the least critical of Ron Paul, while sharing some similarities (closing government agencies... I'm drawing a blank on anything else... oh, he's from Texas). When he drops out, Ron Paul will probably take most of his supporters. Hunstman, same, mostly. :)
Also, bear in mind that Gingrich and Santorum will only excel in some of the social conservative states. And they each only got 9% in New Hampshire! After Florida, I doubt they will be able to pull much support. Independents hate them as it is, and I think the only thing that will keep one of them around is if Santorum backs Gingrich at the right moment. If that happens:
- It will mean a perpetuation of the 3-way race between Moderate Mitt, Neocon Newt and President Paul (like how I did that? All me, but feel free to spread that far and wide)
- It will probably lead to a brokered convention where Paul has a strong influence, or wins because of he'll have the strongest polls against Obama by then.
If Santorum doesn't endorse Newt after Florida, then conservative voters will steadily see Paul's momentum and be siphoned off of the phony conservatives until Paul is the frontrunner.
No matter what happens, I think Ron Paul will win the nomination, and thereafter the presidency, especially if he chooses a smart "Blue Republican" (Demoocrat). That would guarantee him a landslide that no other candidate could have produced, because he'd also qualify as the Americans Elect candidate.
I took a pretty long view of the rest of the campaign, but let me know what else you think might happen!